893.00/12–945: Telegram
The Chargé in China (Robertson) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 10—3:48 p.m.]
2128. Regular weekly report of Military Attaché dated December 8 summarized below:
Tentative hope that struggle for control in China might be stopped short of full scale civil war reappeared this week in spite of continuing hostilities and unrest. Political Consultative Council which had been practically given up last week by even most optimistic emerged again as political reality to be tested December 10. Central Government announcements state that plane will be despatched to bring Chou Enlai back from Yenan and that other delegates have begun to gather in Chungking. Appearance of editorials from Communist sources on Council’s objectives indicate more positive attitude toward discussion of compromise measures. Agreement by Soviets to defer retirement of their forces from Manchuria until presumably Central Government troops can take over has undeniably wakened Communist [Page 695] opposition sufficiently to warrant serious consideration of any gains which might be salvaged through negotiation. That Communists have been depending heavily on Soviet support of their designs on Manchuria is hardly open to question, although nature and extent of Soviet aid to them has been obscured by succession of conflicting reports from observers in that area. It may be expected that, in proportion as Russia demonstrates willingness to cooperate with Central Government, Manchuria Communists will be forced to concessions and to general alteration of their long-range strategy in northeastern provinces. Despite fact they are well entrenched in large cities of Manchuria, it is unlikely that Chinese Communists can hold long against well equipped and trained Central Government Forces now being moved in.
Although military situation in North China changed little during week, there were signs of growing popular unrest especially in Peiping and Tientsin areas from which come reliable reports of long Communist underground activities. Factors contributing to unrest are Communist propaganda, administrative deterioration since Jap surrender, and failure of Central Government to institute sound program of reconstruction. Battles for Kueisui and Paotou continue with indications that number of troops involved on both sides is growing. Persistence of attacks on these cities is measure of Communist determination to control areas adjoining Outer Mongolia and to secure their left flank in North China. Operations by strong Communist forces directed against Tsinpu railroad in southern Shangtung continued this week and new attacks have been launched in Shihchiachuang area against Pinghan railway. Communists are reported to have surrounded Central Government troops in Shihchiachuang where latter are being supplied by air. Central Government Forces advancing into Manchuria appear to have slowed down somewhat and advance guard of 13th Army was last reported to have arrived at Sinmin some 30 miles from Mukden. Central Government occupation of towns along railway north from Shanhaikuan has not been contested but battle in Mukden area seems imminent unless Communists have decided to abandon cities and limit themselves to operations behind the lines. Current optimism with respect to renewal of discussions indicates that armed conflict may be avoided by both sides and military operations in northeast postponed in hope of political victories in Chungking.
According to Communist sources, Ho Ying-chin has ordered main body of seven Central Government Armies to launch three pronged offensive against Kalgan, Chengteh and Mukden. Left prong will move north on Peiping–Suiyuan railroad to capture Kalgan and mop up Chahar Province. Centre prong is to drive along Peiping–Kupehkow railroad to capture strategic passes along Great Wall and [Page 696] invade Jehol. (Communists state Central Government’s 30th Army is taking part in this action—an astonishing discrepancy in view of previous reports that 30th Army has been defeated in northern Honan and that parts of it had gone over to Communists.) Right prong is now threatening Mukden and Communists admit that 16th Army in drive toward Kalgan has advanced to Nankou. Spearheading center prong elements of 13th and 92d Armies have arrived at Miyun on railroad to Chengteh in Jehol. Central Government troops taking part in these offensives are so-called alpha units, best organized, trained and equipped in Chinese Army and they are obviously aiming at splitting Communist troops in the north.
Chinese crisis in its broadest implications is complicated by presence in North China of undisarmed Jap troops. Central Government and Communists continue mutual accusations that in maneuvers for control of North China Japanese units are illogically and unscrupulously being used. Communists have repeatedly charged Central Government with rearming Jap soldiers and throwing them into war against “people’s army”. Central Government declares that Communists are propagandizing Japanese and recruiting them in large numbers and using them to operate Jap artillery in assaults on Paotou and Kueisui. Landslide of anti-American feeling has been created among Communists by U. S. commitments to help Central Govt disarm and repatriate Japanese. Although statistics are not complete and sometimes controversial, there are probably about 250,000 Japanese still armed in China. Importance of this problem which has recently brought into sharpest focus U. S. policy in China is difficult to ignore.