893.00/12–345: Telegram
The Counselor of Embassy in China (Smyth) to the Secretary of State
[Received 12:35 p.m.]
2082. Given below is summary Military Attaché’s report for week ending December 1st:
There were no indications outbreak unlimited civil war was likely to be avoided by political settlement at 11th hour. Political Consultative Council originally scheduled to meet November 20 and almost final hope for negotiated peace has passed into indeterminate state; lost prestige of Council has not been restored by half-hearted Central Govt announcements that it would be called to meet probably December 1st. Chou En-lai returned to Yenan. Wang Jo-fei, Communist representative remaining in Chungking, is said to be demanding impartial investigation of liberated areas before resumption of conversations. Growing negativism of Communists toward negotiations indicated by attacks on alleged Central Govt unilateral action in announcing that National Assembly would meet May 5 next. Yenan alleges that insincerity of Central Govt is thus demonstrated clearly. That Govt leaders have decided to plunge country into civil war.
Central Govt troop advance into northeast continued during week as elements of 52d and 13th Armies entered Chinchow on Peiping [–Mukden] railway and were reported advancing toward Mukden. Despite Chinchow’s importance there was no evidence that 20,000 Communists there committed themselves to fight for city. This seems consistent with Communists’ open intention to hold their attacks until opposing troops have extended deeper into Manchuria. It is expected that major battle may soon develop near Mukden. Port of Hulutao seems to have been occupied by Central Govt troops and here again [Page 692] no evidence of a fight. If Communists have evacuated Hulutao, another entry point for Govt’s reinforcements for Manchuria is available.
Attacks by Communists against lines of communications and centers in North and Central China have increased markedly but with few exceptions these seem to be chiefly auxiliary to main objective of consolidation in northeast and delaying arrival of Central Govt Forces. Observers report that Communist aim is autonomous state in Manchuria supported at least ideologically by sympathetic Govts to west and north. Considerable evidence exists that whole New Fourth Army (strength estimated at 280,000) is destined for redeployment in central and north Manchuria where Jap equipment will be made available to them. Communists have denied vigorously reports that Communist troops in Shantung are being transported by sea from Shantung north coast ports to Liaotung peninsula and are being concentrated near Dairen. Communists have also denied reports that Japanese in quantity are being recruited in northeast and that Communists have been receiving arms from Japanese or “other nationals”. In view of persistence and cogency of evidence to contrary, Communist denials appear weak.
Arrival of Central Govt reinforcements seems to have stalemated battle for Pactou in Suiyuan but [headquaters?] of 12th War Zone reports that Communists are bringing fresh forces into region and mounting new offensive. Kueisui, east of Pactou, is firmly held and Communist hope of capturing these two places has appreciably decreased. According Central Govt reports, 100,000 Communists are massed in southern Shantung and moving against points on Tsinan–Tsingtao and Tsinpu railways. Another force of Communists is reported assembled for drive against Lunghai railway in east Honan and during week heavy destruction of communications as far south as Shanghai–Nanking area was revealed. Increased scope of Communist attacks indicates new urgency of Communist efforts to paralyze Central Govt troop movements.