861.9111/10–2044: Telegram
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Kennan) to the Secretary of State
[Received October 21—3:30 a.m.]
4000. For the Secretary and the Under Secretary. There follows this Mission’s eighth interpretive report on developments in Soviet policy based on the press for the period August 28–October 12 …
Report begins, No. 8.
Although important military developments occurred during this period resulting in the rolling back of both northern and southern flanks of the Germans’ eastern front emphasis for the first time since the Soviet Union was attacked in 1941 was on political rather than military events. With the withdrawal of Rumania, Finland, and Bulgaria from the war, with liberation of Greece and Yugoslavia and [Page 924] collapse of Hungary in sight, Soviet intentions toward her neighbors to the west began to clarify. Soviet policy subject to variations to fit local situations seeks the establishment along the western border of regimes favorable to the Soviet Union but not necessarily the immediate imposition of communistic economic or social systems. While ostentatiously refraining from overt interference in the internal affairs of the countries the Soviet policy is encouraging Communist and sympathetic parties of the left to take control and pursue energetic programs demanding speedy arrest and trial of all persons associated with pro-Nazi Governments or anti-Communist tendencies and introduction of sweeping changes, notably land reform. Armistice terms providing for immediate and heavy deliveries in kind to the Soviet Union and the establishment of control commissions under chairmanship of Soviet generals to enforce these terms ensures effective Soviet influence over national economy. In these circumstances political ferment and economic upheaval in these countries appear unavoidable. In orthodox Marxist ideology these are recognized as the ideal conditions for a revolutionary movement; and the active local Communist parties which appear to be the only groups with a well defined program and strong backing may be expected to take advantage of the situation to attempt to gain for themselves when the moment is propitious the controling voice in government.
Soviet interest in areas outside its own borders, however, is by no means limited to its immediate neighbors. Apparently satisfied that Germany is no longer a threat to its existence the Soviet Union is giving increasing evidence of its new role in the world. Interest is manifested in all forms of international organization and in such diverse questions as the postwar administration of colonies and the future status of the Kiel Canal. Particularly notable recently has been the growing Soviet interest in the Near and Middle East. Turkey with which the Soviet Union is showing increasing impatience and the Dardanelles, historic objective of Russian imperialist policy, are being caught in a great pincers movement of Soviet military political, and cultural penetration through the Balkans.
The Middle East.
In this whole area the Soviets are impinging on regions where British interests are vital and the possibility of friction as the Soviets press their advantage. The present visit of Churchill and Eden to Moscow must be viewed at least partly against this background.
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