800.6176/12–1444
The Second Secretary of the British Ministry of Supply (Franks) to the Director of the Office of Economic Affairs (Haley)
[Received December 21.]
Dear Haley: Although this letter is being written with the knowledge of other Departments mainly concerned, including the Foreign Office, you will see from the subject matter that it is dealing with rather a difficult problem, and it comes informally from me as the leader of the U.K. delegation during the talks last August, to you as the leader of the U.S. delegation at that time.
During the talks, I think that we all felt that it was a necessary consequence of general policy that other countries with a substantial interest in rubber should be admitted to the group in due course. Any other course would be extremely difficult to defend and I do not think either of us would wish to defend it. At the same time, we felt that the group was by way of being a new experiment, that the issues involved might easily be difficult ones and that there was some danger either of making the group of very little use, or even of bringing it to an untimely end, if the membership were much enlarged during the experimental period. We all recognised that pressure might be put on any one of the Governments concerned to support a claim for admission by some other country, which it would be difficult to resist, and that we should have to handle such a claim as best we might in consultation with one another, when the time came.
[Page 985]We have had several approaches of a “fishing” kind since France was liberated, and we took the opportunity given by these to advise the French against making a formal approach at this time. But if we should receive a formal request from them for inclusion in the Study Group (and the chances of this are strengthened because of the recognition of the Provisional Government) we should feel bound to support them.
The case of France will be in a number of ways the strongest that is likely to be made (unless the Russians make a formal demand). France was a member of the old International Rubber Regulation Committee, and French Indo-China is the largest producer of natural rubber outside the British and Dutch areas in the Far East. The French plantations were very efficient, and the French themselves consider that large quantities of natural rubber have been secreted during the Japanese occupation and will be available almost immediately after Indo-China is liberated. They have mentioned a figure of about 200,000 tons, though this is of course rather conjectural. But if they had anything like this quantity, and we had early difficulties in Malaya and the Dutch East Indies, the supply would be a major factor in the situation.
The French will also be the largest single consumer of rubber after the war apart from the U.S.A., the U.K. (and Russia). They have had extensive experience during the war in using German synthetic rubber, and have managed to keep a certain amount of research work going during that period.
The position then, as we see it, is that they will have quite a lot to contribute to the group and will be in a strong position politically to press their claims to membership if they choose to do so. So far they have been induced to stand out but it is now a question both of how long they will take this attitude, and of the extent to which it is wise on our part to try to exclude them.
If it were only a question of France, we for our part would see little difficulty in their inclusion, but the admission of one further country to the group would almost certainly give rise to claims from other countries. Since it has, I think, been the general intention, to keep the Study Group for the time being to its existing membership, I recognise that the addition of France might create some difficulty. I think, however, that we for our part should probably be willing to explain to any countries, which might approach us as the result of the inclusion of France, that France’s claims were exceptionally strong and that it was felt that better progress could be made in this preliminary stage by keeping the Group as small as is reasonably possible while looking to its extension later on to all countries, with a substantial interest in rubber, whether as producers or consumers. [Page 986] This line might well be successful, though I realise that it would be difficult to maintain it in the face of strong pressure.
I should be most grateful if you felt able to give me some indication of your own views after making any consultations which you think proper.
I do not propose to mention this to Westermann until I have heard from you.
We are all looking forward to seeing you again towards the end of January; Bugbee will have given you the latest information on our plans so far as we have been able to formulate them. I am writing to you now rather than waiting until then, because we suspect that any public announcement of the proposal to meet again in January may bring matters to a head.
Yours very sincerely,