893.00/15053
The Ambassador in the United Kingdom (Winant) to the Secretary of State
84
No. 9973
London, July 6,
1943.
[Received July 13.]
Sir: I have the honor to enclose a copy of a
memorandum furnished the Embassy by the Foreign Office, giving a summary of
recent reports on the deterioration in the economic and political situation
in China which have been received from the British Embassy in Chungking in
answer to certain questions put by the Foreign Office.
In summary, it would appear that the British Embassy in Chungking believes
that if Japanese attacks in China are not substantially increased, the
maintenance of the present situation seems to depend more on the crop
prospects than on anything else. It is not believed that there will be a
Chinese attack on the Japanese, so that if it should suit the Japanese to
remain quiet, an easy state of undeclared peace might develop. However, it
is the opinion of the British Embassy in Chungking that as long as the
United States Air Force operates in China, the Japanese will presumably have
to react and complete quiet on the Chinese front would apparently be
impossible. It is felt that if a serious food shortage should occur, it
would probably lead to disturbances which might assume proportions leading
to loss of control over wide areas by the Central Government.
It was stated by a high official of the Foreign Office to a member of my
staff that the somewhat more optimistic view outlined in the present
memorandum is apparently an effort on the part of the British Embassy in
Chungking to present, in response to the Foreign Office’s request, all
aspects of the situation rather than the purely negative one reported
previously in this Embassy’s Cable No. 3791 of June 4, 1943, 11 a.m.85
Respectfully yours,
For the Ambassador:
W. J. Gallman
,
First Secretary of Embassy
[Enclosure]
The British Foreign Office
to the American Embassy in the United
Kingdom
Memorandum
As a result of recent reports indicating a deterioration in the situation
in China, a number of questions were recently put to His
[Page 71]
Majesty’s Ambassador at Chungking. The
questions and their respective answers are set out below.
- (a)
- Q. Is the conciliatory policy towards Wang Ching-wei announced by
the Japanese having any appreciable effect on the situation in Free
China?
- A. So far as can be judged by His Majesty’s Embassy the new policy
towards the Nanking Government is having little or no effect in Free
China. It is suggested that the Japanese price control and system of
food distribution are, at any rate in Shanghai and main centers in
North China, more effective than the Chinese system. This is said to
be producing some effect in occupied China. Cases of people
returning from Free to occupied China have always been quite common
and this sort of thing is not regarded in China in the same way as
it would be in Europe. This tendency may increase.
- (b)
- Q. How much substance is there in the Japanese claims of
defections to Nanking on the part of units of the Chungking
forces?
- A. There have certainly been cases of defection. In some cases,
for instance in that of General Pang Ping Hsun, it is almost certain
that defection took place only after his force was surrounded. There
have no doubt been some cases when even this excuse could not be
given, but these so far have been confined to persons of little
importance. The Embassy think therefore that there is some substance
in the Japanese claims although they are no doubt
exaggerated.
- (c)
- Q. Is the greater measure of independence which the Japanese
allege that Wang Ching-wei has been given likely to lead to any form
of understanding between Chungking and Nanking?
- A. In the view of His Majesty’s Embassy the answer is “no.” There
has always been some contact between the two régimes and this is
maintained but does not appear to grow closer.
The Embassy add that there has been improvement in the situation since
the recent Japanese setback on the Yangtse front. Isolation of China
from the outside world is, as was always expected, producing its
inevitable effect. But on the whole the fall in morale is slower than
might be expected and if the pressure on the Chinese is not
substantially increased they can, the Embassy think, continue resistance
on the present scale.
To sum up, provided the weight of the Japanese contacts is not
substantially increased the maintenance of the present situation seems
in the opinion of His Majesty’s Embassy to depend more on crop prospects
than on anything else. A Chinese attack on the Japanese may be excluded,
so that if it should suit the Japanese to remain quiet, an easy state of
undeclared peace might result. Nevertheless, as long as the United
States Air Force operates in China the Japanese will presumably have to
react and complete quiet on the Chinese front would
[Page 72]
apparently be impossible. A serious food
shortage if it occurs would probably lead to disturbances which might
assume proportions leading to loss of control over wide areas by the
Central Government. Present crop prospects are not bad but it is too
early to judge.
