740.0011 Pacific War/3219: Telegram
The Chargé in China (Vincent) to the Secretary of State
[Received April 25—11:25 a.m.]
596. Following paragraph is summary of Military Attaché’s weekly review of military situation:
Chinese communiqués have carried numerous accounts of renewed fighting but it is believed that successes claimed represent simply reoccupation of area vacated by Japanese. There was no evidence of coordinated Jap offensive in this theatre. Isolated and small scale engagements took place in Shantung, Honan, Kiangsi, Hupeh, Hunan, and Kwangtung provinces. In western Yunnan drive undertaken by several thousand Jap soldiers moving from Mangshih, southwest of Lungling, was reported checked by Chinese. General Hata, commander of Jap forces in China, returned to Nanking from inspection trip in North China.
My interpretation of recent military encounters in China which Chinese report in large number is that they are continuation of type of warfare that has prevailed in China for past several years. The Chinese giving away before superior force are always ready to reoccupy points evacuated by Japs or to drive Japs from places when garrisons are weakened by withdrawals and to engage Jap foraging units. These harassing tactics have no major importance but they do in a measure prevent Japs from complacent consolidation of positions and from making much profit from various minor positions.
There are widely divergent interpretations of Jap Cabinet changes. Wang Peng-sheng, advisor to Generalissimo on Jap affairs, interprets them as final move prior to war against Russia and is of opinion that Japan will attack Russia before June with initial seizure of North of Sakhalin Island. Chief of Military Intelligence does not accept this prediction. He suspects an offer of peace negotiations presumably to China by Shigemitsu59 and the appointment of Ando60 to Home Affairs and Tojo’s taking over Education Ministry as precaution against [Page 51] unrest in Japan. Others anticipate renewed efforts to reach amicable understanding with Russia and to persuade Russia to make peace with Germany. For further views see Embassy’s 585, April 23, and 587, April 24, 11 a.m.61
Japanese radio broadcasts have reported that on April 20 Wang Ching-wei addressed an appeal to Chiang Kai-shek to abandon resistance and join with Nanking régime in a “peace move to save the country.” It is probable that recent Japanese moves to gain confidence of Chinese in occupied areas may also be utilized in an attempt to weaken Chinese will to resistance through an appeal to Chinese unity and a show of friendship and non-aggressive intention toward China. A Catholic priest recently arrived from Peiping brings report that Japanese plan greatly to reduce their troops in North China, substituting therefor Chinese puppet troops and to have Wang Chingwei remove his seat of Government to Peiping. Fact that North China has been returned to Chinese will then be widely advertised. I do not believe this campaign will have any appreciable effect on Chinese in control of Government here and little upon Chinese in general. I do not believe however that primary significance Shigemitsu’s appointment as Foreign Minister is to be found in Japan’s plans for carrying out its “new China policy”—its “China appeasement policy” as the Chinese Foreign Office describes it.
Japan may have decided to attack Russia but it is not believed that Cabinet changes can be interpreted as evidence of such decisions and positive indications of an intended attack are lacking here. The Chinese fluctuate between prediction of an imminent Russo-Japanese war and a Russo-Japanese entente. They seem intent on having one or the other. It will be recalled that at regular intervals since June 1941, there have been predictions of war, including that of the Generalissimo who told Ambassador on July 4, 1941 that Japan would attack Russia in 2 weeks. Recently Chinese have strongly suspected that Japan and Russia were about to make a deal. There has been no apparent factual basis for any of these predictions.