893.00/15048
The Chargé in China (Atcheson) to the Secretary of State
[Received July 3.]
Sir: I have the honor to transmit herewith copy of a memorandum83 reporting the views of a young, but fairly prominent, Chinese journalist concerning the dangers in the present situation in China.
Summary: Many of the members of the present government do not expect the defeat of Japan for at least four years. Because of the rapidly deteriorating economic and military situation in China, and because they now despair of significant assistance from America or Russia, these elements believe that China cannot continue to fight Japan for any such period. Their resolution is being undermined by the Japanese “appeasement” of Wang Ching-wei, by a definite military threat through Hunan and West Hupeh, and by periodic [Page 253] offers of peace terms—the last of which was brought to Chungking by Wu Kai-hsein. The Government, he feels, in fact cannot continue to fight the war in the present way. Fundamental reforms are necessary or there inevitably must be some compromise with either Japan or Wang Ching-wei. In his opinion, the present reactionary government will never carry out these reforms: The only political group which could do so is the Political Science Group, which, unfortunately to his mind, is now out of favor and in a subordinate position.
The views here expressed are undoubtedly pessimistic. But they are believed to be significant as being those of an intelligent and well informed man whose business is political observation. They are a reflection of the obvious discouragement in Chungking among liberals and progressive minded officials.
The Political Science Group, on which this observer pins his hopes, is, as the Embassy has reported (see Embassy’s despatch No. 553, dated July 30, 194284), not a true political party but rather a loose aggregation of administrators and career officials of somewhat similar interests and views. Most of them are foreign trained and tend to be “Western” in attitude and their approach to political, social and economic problems. Not, generally speaking, very liberal—or even greatly concerned with political theories—they can at least be called more “enlightened” than the present groups which appear to dominate the government. It is quite likely that they might give China, as the informant thinks, a better government than the country now enjoys, and bring about certain needed agrarian, taxation, conscription and anti-inflationary reforms. They might even be willing—though many of their number are by reputation strongly anti-Communist—to reenter into cooperation with that party. But to hope for their being given control of the government, in the face of present trends within the Kuomintang and the government and their own recent loss of important positions, seems to fall a little short of political realism.
Respectfully yours,
- Not printed.↩
- Foreign Relations, 1942, China, p. 211.↩