793.94/15903: Telegram
The Ambassador in China (Johnson) to the Secretary of State
[Received 9:20 a.m.]
238. Hong Kong’s 169, June 1, 10 a.m. Local Chinese military sources confirm reports of concentration of Japanese Army and Naval forces in the region of Hainan. One such source estimates Japanese military forces recently despatched to the island as totaling only slightly over 10,000 men, while another declares 3 divisions totaling 60,000 men have been despatched from Japan to Hainan. It seems not unlikely that the latter figure is excessive and that the first figure more nearly corresponds with [the facts?]. Same informants report that Japanese continue construction of air fields in Hainan and that 200 bombers and 2 aircraft carriers are now based on Hainan.
The prevalent feeling in Chinese official quarters here seems to be that the Japanese are capable of risking a move in the direction of Indo-China or the Netherlands East Indies in the event of an allied collapse in Europe and perhaps even in the event of active Italian intervention on the side of Germany; at the moment it is generally felt that Indo-China might be the first object of attack, perhaps resulting in a renewed Japanese drive in Kwangsi. While informed Chinese point to the possibility of the extension of Japanese military activities, they nevertheless generally adhere to the opinion that the attitude of the United States is the paramount factor that will determine whether Japan will or will not precipitate an adventure in the south, and that Japanese inability heretofore to gauge the prospective attitude of the United States has contributed largely to what might be described as the Japanese attitude of indecision in the matter.
Repeated to Peiping, Hong Kong and Canton.
Peiping please repeat to Tokyo.