740.0011 European War 1939/6147: Telegram
The Ambassador in Turkey (MacMurray) to the Secretary of State
[Received 6:50 p.m.]
171. 1. On returning from a visit to Budapest (where through Lane I had also the opportunity to get some impression of feeling in Yugoslavia) I have been struck with the relative calmness of Turkish official opinion with respect to the developments of Axis policy in the Balkan region. As may be inferred from the Embassy’s telegram No. 167, October 12, 5 p.m.,34 it is not that the Turks are unaware of the possible dangers; there is indeed (particularly in Istanbul) a rather general uneasiness in unofficial quarters. But the Government is acting with remarkable lack of nervousness on the assumption that (as remarked to me by the Minister for Foreign Affairs) having calmly made its decisions and its preparations against foreseeable eventualities it can only await developments with like calmness.
2. The Minister stated that he had no actual information as to the decisions taken at the Brenner meeting and could only reason a priori as to its significance. He thinks that the mere fact of its being held after so many other meetings of the representatives of the Axis seemed to indicate that Germany and Italy were encountering serious difficulties either external or internal to their association. As to the German occupation of Rumania he noted three possible hypotheses which he described as all equally plausible, namely: [Page 524]
- (First) That action may be purely local and intended merely to assure German control and protection of Rumania’s resources;
- (Second) It may be intended to establish the strategic basis for a German attack on Russia in which case the plan might or might not contemplate as a complementary necessity the seizure of the Straits; or
- (Third) It may constitute a step in a plan for a joint German and Italian advance against the Suez Canal through Turkey, Syria and Palestine. He remarked that this alternative did not seem reasonable but could not be ignored or regarded as improbable.
3. As an indication of the unyielding temper of Turkey it may be noted that no transactions have yet taken place under the commercial agreement with Germany of July 25, in consequence of this Government’s insistence upon certain points of interpretation and its unwillingness to meet prices on which Germany insists.
4. Upon the Minister’s remarking that relations with Soviet Russia were improving somewhat and my saying that I supposed that meant that they were now able to discuss their common problems with an increasing degree of frankness, he said that it would be going much too far to describe the situation in that way.
- Not printed.↩