793.94/14821
Memorandum of Conversation, by the Chief of the Division of Far Eastern Affairs (Hamilton)
Mr. Renchard of the Secretary’s office brought Congressman Keller79 to me with the statement that the Congressman had just seen the Secretary and that he (the Congressman) was interested in talking to someone in regard to the situation in the Far East.
Congressman Keller inquired whether I thought the Chinese could win against Japan. I replied that there were of course differing opinions on this subject among qualified and intelligent observers; [Page 515] that observers such as Lattimore80 and Peffer81 had rather consistently expressed the view that Japan could not win; that other qualified observers held a contrary view. I said that the circumstances of the absorption by China of its Mongol and Manchu conquerors constituted in my opinion no adequate basis for deducing that China would absorb Japanese conquerors: I cited reasons. I said that my own personal view, which was not for quotation or attribution, was that it would be a mistake for anyone to base a policy on an assumption that the Chinese would be able by their own efforts to defeat the Japanese and that, while one could of course not be sure, it seemed to me that, were China and Japan left entirely alone and free from outside influences, the factors in favor of Japan were stronger than were the factors in favor of China. I said that one thing seemed clear, namely, that there was no present prospect of an end of the conflict and that it would probably continue for a number of years.
Congressman Keller asked what we could do toward assisting China and toward making Japan’s task in China more difficult. I commented that decision in regard to measures directed toward those ends would seem to rest in large part with Congress.
There then ensued general discussion of the Far Eastern situation, in the course of which Congressman Keller evidenced especial interest in questions of military tactics and strategy. I therefore telephoned M. I. D. in the War Department and arranged for Major Betts to see Congressman Keller.
Congressman Keller said a number of times that what had been said would be treated by him as confidential and that he was interested in doing something by way of making Japan’s task more difficult. He said that he was considering introducing a resolution embargoing the export to Japan of commodities such as oil, scrap iron, etc. When I asked what in his opinion the likely congressional reaction would be to such a measure, he said that he did not know but that public opinion throughout the country was ninety percent in favor of some such action. He said that he believed that Japan would be able, unless other powers made their influence felt, to conquer China and that thereafter Japanese aggression would move to new fields. He intimated his belief that if Japan should be successsful in China, some day the United States would have to fight Japan and he said that he would rather take some action now directed toward making Japan’s task difficult than to wait until Japan had completely consolidated its position in China.