740.00/748
The Ambassador in Belgium (Davies) to the Secretary of State
[Received April 7.]
Subject: General Observations on the European Situation Reflected from this Post.
Sir: With reference to the above entitled matter, I have the honor to submit herewith a short recapitulation of certain factors in the European situation as reflected from this post and as of this particular date.
General.
Pessimism is the darkest here that I have seen. War is regarded as inevitable. Hope only is expressed that hostilities may be averted for the next few months. This obtains in all circles: court, military, business, and diplomatic.
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Hitler and War or Peace.
Chamberlain’s Birmingham speech75 is held generally to have radically reversed the situation as to Peace prospects for the year. Peace this summer is not now protected by a British policy of appeasement. Hitler is considered to be faced with the decision of war or peace, now, when he is at the height of his power which relatively would be less later on. If he decides upon peace, he can have it only upon condition of disarmament preceding discussion, over the council table, as to colonies, etc. Disarmament for Germany, economically and socially, and probably politically, would be disastrous. There is no adequate local or foreign market for German manufactured goods, and hence no adequate demand for goods or for labor. Consequent thereon, unemployment would require enormous financial credits and gold reserves. Germany has neither. From this point of view, peace for Hitler would be the hard way out. It is feared that Hitler is thinking in the terms that war is the easier and safer way out. This is on the theory that he has a first class chance to win by a quick “putsch”, and that even if he does not win, he nevertheless cannot be defeated because he is immune from blockade and with the [Page 105] Siegfried line can hold off attack; and if worse comes to worst, he can still probably make peace. It is extraordinary that nowhere can you find any real confidence that Hitler has a will for peace. The little countries are scared to death.
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Respectfully yours,
- March 17, 1939.↩