740.00119 European War 1939/133: Telegram
The Ambassador in the United Kingdom (Kennedy) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 8—5:15 p.m.]
2309. For the President and Secretary of State. I have just seen the Prime Minister. His opinion is that the memorandum from [Page 527] Belgium and Holland was caused by declaration of Germany, in camping their troops on the Dutch and Belgian borders and advertising to the world that they contemplated going into one of these countries, forced these people to make this gesture, which they were glad to do because they considered it the means of self-preservation. Hitler’s usual method of striking suddenly without advertising certainly was not the strategy employed here.
Chamberlain says, of course, he will give it serious consideration so that it may not be that he turned it down offhand but, of course, he will turn it down. He believes that Hitler will make about the same kind of statement regarding it that he made some weeks ago in his so-called peace overtures. Chamberlain believes that no peace proposal is practical just at this time. The German people have not suffered enough yet to be disgusted with the leadership. I asked him how long he thought this war would last and he [apparent omission] had not given an answer to that question to anybody but a few members of the War Cabinet. To me he said, “I do not believe it will go beyond the spring”. I said, “On what do you base that opinion?” and he said that regardless of all the advice he receives not to depend on Germany breaking up it is his belief based on all the things he thinks he knows that the absence of any victories for Hitler and the continued pressure of the blockade will cause this condition in Germany. I said, “Suppose Hitler goes into Holland; won’t that be sufficient to keep the German hopes up?” and Chamberlain said, “I consider that the loss of Rotterdam and our natural unwillingness to remain quiet while he establishes himself there will prevent that from being considered as a Hitler victory when the results are seen.” (He will also have outraged any public opinion in the world that is not already outraged.) Chamberlain says that nothing Hitler planned has gone the way he thought it would go and that all advices he gets from Russia are that Stalin does not contemplate entering the war on Germany’s side.
As regards Italy he says that not only has Italy no desire to fight on the side of Germany but he questions whether they are able to give military aid to anybody. He said that what they have found in the last month about the condition of the Italians indicates very clearly that Italy lacks a great many things necessary to fight any kind of a campaign.
A war that bores people is the only danger he sees now.