740.0011 European War 1939/873: Telegram
The Chargé in Germany (Kirk) to the Secretary of State
[Received 6:04 p.m.]
1839. My 1804, October 22, 7 p.m.97 Although no direct information is available or can be expected the opinion prevails that a decision has been reached to launch airplane attacks against the British fleet as well as shipping and military objectives in England in the near future, possibly next week. All preparations are believed to have been made for these attacks and the main considerations at present are said to be the weather and visibility especially with a view to regulations of the raids. The opinion as to the possibility of a land offensive in the west is more divided but the more measured view is that any offensive in that direction will be limited to those sectors where British troops will be concentrated and that a major offensive along the front will not be launched at present. This view gives effect to the distinction which has been made and particularly stressed in Ribbentrop’s speech98 between the violent enmity manifested against Great Britain and the indulgent attitude towards France and also admits [Page 467] of the possibility which is said to be entertained by influential party leaders and even by Hitler himself that within a limited period of time France may be utilized to bring about peace with England.
In those circles, however, which as stated in my telegram under reference any development is expected at any time attention is particularly directed towards the threat of violation by Germany of neutral territory and especially of Holland and Belgium. In this connection it is stated on reliable authority that the plan already exists for the invasion by Germany of France through Belgium and the use of that territory in launching attacks against England. Belgium it is said if alone attacked might resist for a period of 3 weeks but in the event that the approach should be made through Holland as well, Belgium would be helpless to resist. At the present time according to information available to foreign military attaché it is believed that between 60 and 80 German divisions are concentrated in the west of which 12 are stated to be on the Dutch frontier, 15 on the Belgian-Luxemburg borders, 11 between the Mosel and the Rhine, 7 south of Karlsruhe, and additional forces including mechanized troops assembling east of the Rhine. It is not known that the German troops in the west are as yet fully prepared for a major offensive. Furthermore, indications are lacking as to whether a decision has been reached to put into operation the plan of attack which would violate Belgian and Dutch neutrality and in this connection it has been said that although the divergence of command favors a general land offensive before British preparations have further materialized and war supplies from the United States are rendered available, Hitler himself is opposed to such a course at present. The fact remains, however, that the reported presence of German troops on the Belgian and Dutch frontier subject as it may be to explanations on other grounds is a cause of grave concern to those who fear an extension of the war.
It is with that fear in view that possible means have been explored to minimize the danger and the following suggestion is submitted for such consideration as it may merit: any direct representation to the German Government on the part of the Governments of Belgium and the Netherlands might prove difficult from the point of view of the latter Governments and might not carry sufficient weight to serve the purpose intended. Some intervention therefore by a powerful neutral would appear to be indicated and the first choice is the Government of the United States. In making any such démarche with a view to attaining the ends desired cognizance should be taken of the fact that in Germany the possibility of the violation of neutral territory by England and France also has not been eliminated from consideration. Any step therefore should be taken with regard to the British and French Governments as well as to the German Government and in [Page 468] the same general tone. Furthermore, attention should be given to the susceptibilities of the German Government which, in such matters, chooses to adopt the attitude that some accusation is being launched against it and unjustly so. The démarche therefore should be secret and confidential and should be given no publicity whatsoever. The form of such a démarche which has been suggested is a personal message from the President to the chiefs of the respective states on the lines of the interest of the entire world in the preservation of neutrality in general and the protection of the neutral status of Belgium and Holland in particular.
In submitting the foregoing suggestion and especially in judging the opportune moment for its possible implementation I need not point out that in circumstances such as the present until action was understood the intent of the German Government can only be inferred and that even a decision taken may be subject to change before it is actually put into effect.