740.0011 European War 1939/841: Telegram
The Minister in Rumania (Gunther) to the Secretary of State
[Received 5:55 p.m.]
351. Whereas the terms of the Franco-British-Turkish pact may be considered as a diplomatic defeat for Germany and as erecting a definite barrier against German aggression in southwestern Europe, on the other hand it leaves the door wide open to aggression from Russia. There is no echo here of the jubilation in the allied countries over this pact.
As pointed out in paragraph 3 of my telegram No. 203, September 16, 9 p.m.,96 it has not been my belief that Germany would attempt the conquest of Rumania except possibly later as an incidental [Page 465] in a desperate last chance thrust intended to menace eventually the Suez Canal. Even this she would probably not be likely to attempt unless sure of Italian collaboration. On the other hand, it is my belief that Russia presents a much greater danger to this part of the world than does Germany. England, which appears to be courting Russia, would hardly go to war with her to protect Rumania. When the time comes the British guarantee of this country, it may well be argued, was intended originally to apply only in the case of German aggression. The French would do nothing unless England led the way. Though Turkey would not concur it is quite clear from Franco-British-Turkish pact that it will not defend Rumania except indirectly in case Bulgaria also attacks. Possibly there is already an agreement in principle between Germany and Russia regarding the Black Sea zone as there was concerning the Baltic States. In any case only Germany would appear to stand in the way of such plans as Russia may have or develop for German aggression upon Rumania. Therefore unless the Balkan-Danubian bloc or federation is effectively and promptly consummated Russian aggression is just a question of whether and when. In the event of it the very fact of the imminence of a Balkan-Danubian federation might even be taken as the excuse for explicit demands backed up by a threat of force.
- Not printed.↩