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Report by the Military Attaché in Germany (Smith)46
On February 26th there appears to be practically no chance of any German aggression in Europe for the balance of 1939, unless some at present unpredictable development should occur. The Military Attaché has had the opportunity to talk with at least five important officers of the German army who have heard Hitler discussing foreign political issues within the past week. All of these officers are agreed that Hitler foresaw no immediate complications for the time being. Hitler appears to believe that as a result of the conference at Munich, a definite development is occurring in all South-Eastern Europe and that this development would only be hindered by German interference in Hungary or Roumania. Hitler never mentioned to any of these officers any plans in the West, but this is recognized as an absurdity by all Germans, whether military or of the party, and would never be brought up in a conversation.
Hitler does not appear to foresee any war-like developments in the Mediterranean this year. This opinion is also shared by practically all German officers. These officers reject, almost with laughter, the idea that Germany is going to expend its youths for the sake of Italian control in Jibuti or Tunis. These officers, however, are all of the opinion that Mussolini will come out the winner in the present Mediterranean crisis. They point to the fact that it is out of the question that Mussolini will leave Majorka until his claims elsewhere are satisfied. They all believe that Mussolini is too clever and wise a statesman to place his demands beyond the point which France can accept with honor. Many German officers believe that the eventual solution will be a division of Tunis.
Evidence from every side in Berlin at the present time is that the main effort of Hitler and the German government is on the expansion of foreign trade. Hitler made this question of increase of foreign trade the principal plank of his speech to the Reichstag on January [Page 25] 30 and all evidence goes to show that this is actually the main interest of the German government at the present time. There is every evidence in Berlin that the commercial discussions with England are being very carefully prepared in advance and that the preliminary basis of an agreement is already in existence.
There have been numerous indications in recent weeks that the German army, at least in a minor way, has begun to economize. Whether this economy extends beyond normal administrative expenses, however, has not yet been determined.
Germany during the month of February 1939 has been quieter politically than at any time since August 1935. It is apparent that the German government and Hitler are seeking to counteract the war rumors which apparently are widely prevalent in Paris, London and Washington.
- Copy transmitted to the Department of State by the War Department; received March 20, 1939.↩