724.3415/3578: Telegram
The Ambassador in Peru (Dearing) to the Secretary of State
[Received March 2—6:04 a.m.]
25. Department’s telegram No. 16, February 25, 5 p.m.,36 and the Embassy’s telegram 22, February 26, 9 p.m.37 Foreign Office dictated the following suggestion to me late this afternoon following receipt of the text of the League formula by air from Buenos Aires.
“Dr. Polo38 is of the opinion that since the basis of all the divergencies between Bolivia and Paraguay regarding the acceptance of [Page 62] the proposal of the Commission to the League of Nations is reciprocal distrust, principally on the part of Paraguay which feels suspension of hostilities will permit Bolivia to prepare a new attack; the most efficacious cooperation neutrals can proffer for the success of the mediation is the effective guarantee that they will in no case consent that hostilities shall be renewed either on the one side or on the other on any pretext whatever.
The idea of such a guarantee was suggested by Dr. Polo during the mediation of the four neighboring powers and was well received by the Governments of Argentina, Brazil and Chile. It was limited, however, to a purely moral character, a limitation which was not in the thought of Dr. Polo when he first made the suggestion and rendered his suggestion relatively inefficacious.
Dr. Polo believes that if an effective guarantee were offered upon the initiative of the American Government and with the support of the four neighboring powers all the distrust which now impedes the arrangement of peace would disappear and the suspension of hostilities would be brought much closer.”
Dr. Polo states he feels that if our Government would support his suggestion, which really means the effective prohibition of any further importations of war materials and war supplies into Bolivia and Paraguay, it would rapidly bring about a settlement. He explains confidentially that his original suggestions in this sense (see Embassy’s despatch 2132, dated September 19, 1932)39 were largely nullified by the attitude of Brazil which felt that to take a decided step of this kind might involve the neighboring powers in responsibilities it would appear preferable to avoid. Dr. Polo feels these fears are unfounded and that an effective blockade against the entry of any further munitions and war supplies could be carried out without undue involvement and would bring the two countries to reason.
Dr. Polo is keeping closely informed of conditions in Bolivia and tells me his reports indicate extremely unstable political affairs with the public turning strongly against Salamanca and the army and avoiding the last call to the colors in every way possible. Bolivian Minister today urgently requested measures along the Peruvian frontier to prevent Bolivians subject to military duty from escaping into Peru.