793.94/2746: Telegram
The Ambassador in Japan (Forbes) to the Secretary of State
[Received November 18—8:55 a.m.]
223. Your 230, November 16, 2 p.m.43 The … Minister’s call was a special one, evidently intended to inform me of the report he sent his Government. Today he has developed further his theme to the effect that pressure, he feels confident, will only consolidate Japanese public opinion and enhance the power of the Japanese military. The very definite opinion was expressed by the … Minister that the present conservative Government here is the most conciliatory which could be organized and should be supported, since any change is likely to tend toward a more militant attitude. Both Ministers confirmed my observation concerning the unanimity of attitude in the diplomatic corps, only one minor exception being noted by the … Minister.
Rumors of an impending Cabinet change within either a few weeks or months fill the air, but as yet there is little of a definite nature. Three reasons for a Cabinet change are advanced: weak Japanese diplomacy relative to the League of Nations, the Cabinet’s weakness since September 18 with respect to the Japanese military, and the financial situation. As to the Cabinet which will be formed to take the place of the present one, three possibilities are mentioned:
- (1)
- A “coalition” cabinet will be formed by a part of the Minseito, led by Adachi, now Minister for Home Affairs, and by a part of the Seiyukai, led by Tokonami. Lacking a precedent, this does not appear probable. Both men, especially the latter, are politicians instead of statesmen, are opportunists, and would not enjoy the country’s confidence. Forming a cabinet in consequence of such an intrigue probably would be opposed by powerful personages such as Prince Saionji and Count Makino, men who play an important role at the time of a political change.
- (2)
- The Seiyukai will form a cabinet. At the present time this does not appear probable. The reputation of the Seiyukai still is unsavory as a result of the scandals when it was in office under Baron Tanaka. It is doubtful that the personages mentioned above would find this minority party acceptable at present.
- (3)
- Premier Wakatsuki will continue in office to form a coalition cabinet composed of Minseito, Seiyukai, and independents. This is regarded to be most probable of the three surmises in case the Cabinet falls in the near future.
Undoubtedly the situation is very tense, but it will certainly calm down if given time and in the absence of irritating developments. Rumors flood the press, and the Government daily issues bans against publishing significant items. Yesterday, for example, one ban prohibited any news, except when given out by military authorities, of the movement of two divisions; another banned any information concerning the proposed extension of the South Manchuria Railway; a third banned any comment on Japanese aid in connection with the ex-Emperor of China leaving Tientsin. The newspapers are busily commenting on possible compromises and speculating on conditions. Two days ago the Japan Advertiser here published a good deal of the information reported in my 215, November 12, 1 p.m., about the alternative conditions of Japanese withdrawal being given out by the Tokyo Foreign Office. Colonel McIlroy has returned from the maneuvers preparatory to leaving by way of Manchuria. He saw the assembling of numerous transports, as if to move a large force of troops, while troops going to Mukden are coming from the extreme north of Japan. He reports every railway station packed with children waving flags and trains full of troops every 30 minutes; all of this gave the appearance of an organized effort to create wartime enthusiasm.