793.94/2168: Telegram
The Chargé in Japan (Neville) to the Secretary of State
[Received October 16—4:30 a.m.]
185. I saw the Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs, yesterday afternoon. He referred to a press despatch from Geneva stating that the United States was prepared to have an observer at the League Council meeting and asked me if it was true. I said that I did not know. I added that presumably the United States would do so only if invited and that Japan, having a representative in the Council, would know about it. He said that they had as yet received no such report from Geneva but that communications seemed to be bad as they had only fragmentary reports from Yoshizawa. I do not know how much truth there may be in the press reports in this matter.
My own feeling is that there is not likely to be a war. Japan has no money for a campaign in China and in any case is not prepared to face the odium which would arise from it. China is unable to fight as the country has no organized fighting forces of any military value. Neither side could get any money for warlike activities.
With temper running high on both sides and the Chinese administration in Manchuria in a disorganized condition we must expect a certain number of incidents. I do not believe it will be much more than that. It is unfortunate and trying but it does not amount to a world crisis.
[Paraphrase.] With reference to the Department’s 196, October 14, 4 p.m., I think the policy of the Department, to urge moderation on both parties, with the offer to assist in any possible way to get them to negotiate, is the one most likely to bring results. I am sorry if I have inadvertently given any other impression. However, again I venture to urge that this purpose should be the only American concern; that the American Government should not be diverted therefrom in the slightest degree and that the United States should avoid entanglement in League policies because of it. A decided political issue would be raised by such action, to be justified only by the gravest international complication, and, in my opinion, the present situation is not in that category.
I am sure the Japanese do not suspect the motives of the American Government, and the Japanese Vice Minister so assured me, speaking for the Foreign Minister, who, he said, has been sensible all along of the disinterested friendliness of the United States. I have not had an opportunity to talk over the character of any negotiations. [End paraphrase.]