793.94/2346
Memorandum by the Minister in China (Johnson) of a Conversation With Dr. John C. Ferguson, Adviser of the Executive Yuan of the Chinese National Government4
Dr. Ferguson called today and after some conversation about various matters and before leaving he said that he felt very much concerned about the situation that was growing up between Japan and China. He suggested that I might not wish to go south to resume negotiations in regard to extraterritoriality5 in view of the fact that Japan was bound to take drastic action vis-à-vis China very shortly. I asked him what he meant by drastic action. He said his information was that Japan would occupy Manchuria within the next three months. He said that a high Japanese official had made a tour in China for the purpose of investigating the situation here and had reported to his Government that the opportunity for taking this action had now arrived and he had recommended it.
I told Dr. Ferguson that I thought such action on the part of the Japanese highly improbable; it seemed fantastic that at this time the Japanese would act in this way, particularly as they were able to exploit Manchuria while all of the expenses of administration and government would remain on Chinese shoulders.
Dr. Ferguson stated that nevertheless he believed his information was correct.