711.94/2625
Memorandum of Comment by the Ambassador in Japan (Grew)
The Japanese press has given prominence to the remarks made by the American Secretary of the Navy to the effect that the Government of the United States has become convinced that Japan does not intend to abandon its policy of expansion and that should this policy be pursued a conflict with the United States is unavoidable. From the vantage point of this Embassy it is apparent that while the widespread conviction in the United States and abroad that Japan has no intention of giving up its policy of expansion may be logical, nevertheless the fallacy of this view may be found in the fact that the present Japanese leaders are willing to give up their expansionist plans through armed force if a workable understanding can be reached with the United States.
In relation to the informant’s observations, there is little that can be added to the analysis set forth in my telegram to the Department No. 1529 of September 29, noon, and the suggestions advanced therein, particularly in paragraphs 5 and 10, still obtain despite the fact that [Page 699] the procedure of negotiations anticipated in the suggested meeting between the President and the Japanese Prime Minister may now have to be changed. If, as I have no reason to doubt, the informant’s statement that the Emperor is for the first time actively engaged in the formulation of policy in Japan and the announced aim of reaching an agreement with the United States is true, some more positive attempt by General Tojo and the new Foreign Minister to render the current conversations more concrete than has heretofore been the case may be anticipated, an opinion, however, which must be mere speculation until I have seen the new Foreign Minister. In this connection, whatever may be the character of the Foreign Minister’s approach, in our first conversation I shall of course initiate nothing and shall make it clear that my Government desires that the conversations be continued in Washington and only paralleled here.
From the available information I am quite convinced that had the Emperor not taken the positive stand which he did on this issue, the situation mentioned in paragraph 8 of my 1529, September 29, noon, would probably have developed.