500.A15a3/100: Telegram
The Ambassador in Great Britain (Dawes) to the Secretary of State
[Received August 1—2:05 p.m.]
215. Reference your No. 196, July 31, last paragraph. The Prime Minister may possibly be presenting the old program of the Admiralty for the purpose of trying us out; but I do not believe that this is the case. I think I owe it to the Prime Minister to state that in last Monday’s conference, at which we arrived at the tentative figures contained in my telegram No. 209 of July 29, my own attitude and that of Gibson was such as to give him grounds for his belief that these propositions, in our view, were a contribution to progress, although at the same time we pressed the need for more reduction. I presented to MacDonald early this morning your forcible and direct telegram No. 196 without in any way softening it, and discussed it with him. This message should induce him to send me today that statement which we now need in order that the vital issues should be clarified.
I should like to present the following reflections which have suggested themselves to me:
It will be necessary for him to take a stand for such a real reduction as will provide an opportunity, well-founded or otherwise, for an [Page 171] attack on the part of the opposition, with the support of the Admiralty, to the effect that the safety of the Empire is being endangered; or he must take the position, which will have some public appeal, that he must now urge, as the position most consistent with Empire safety, naval parity combined with a certain amount of limitation of construction programs and a stopping of competition, without however any substantial present reduction save as regards building programs. His statesmanship will inevitably be tested by this situation and it may be possible that without any dangerous loss of his political prestige he could risk a showdown on a basis of this sort. It will not represent a refuge for any great length of time if he suggests a delay. Up to the present he has shown himself as a statesman who is ground between the millstones of his own Admiralty propositions and the American proposals. I should add that he is entirely frank and sincere with us and that he conceals neither the facts which he receives from his Admiralty nor the reactions which they produce in him.
Athough MacDonald is leaving for Lossiemouth tonight, he will come back to confer with me on your reply to the letter he is now preparing and which will be cabled to you as soon as it is received this afternoon. This conference will probably take place on Tuesday and Gibson, who is receiving all this correspondence, will of course attend.