Mr. Runyon to Mr. Gresham .
Berlin , January 5, 1895 .
Sir: In view of what is already known to the State Department through the public press and otherwise, it may perhaps be quite unnecessary to say anything in regard to the situation here with reference to the danger to the trade between the United States and this country to be apprehended if the legislation of the former, providing for an additional tax on sugar from bounty-paying countries, be not repealed. Nevertheless, I think it proper to speak briefly of the condition of affairs on this head, as it appears to me.
What that condition is is shown by the speech of Count Kanitz, a leader of the Agrarian party, and that of Baron Marschall von Bieberstein, Imperial secretary of state for foreign affairs, speaking for the Government in the Reichstag at the present session, a report of which speeches I have had the honor to send to you (Dispatch No. 176, December 18, 1894). The dissatisfaction with the action of the United States in imposing the additional special duty referred to is increasing among the Agrarians (their party is the party of the great landed proprietors) by means of agitation. It is their interests which are especially affected by the duty, and obviously so far as they are concerned any measures which will injuriously affect our trade with Germany in agricultural products or in cattle or meat will be to their advantage.
It is not too much to say that there is danger that if the objectionable legislation be not repealed the two countries may drift into a tariff war. Of course such a contest is to be deprecated on both sides, and is to be avoided if possible. The trade between the two countries is, as is well known, very great on each side, and such a strife would be extremely [Page 511] injurious to each. The view I have expressed of the danger of retaliation is not based upon any opinion or conviction entertained by me of the existence of unfriendliness on the part of the Government; and on this head I may say that, as has already been stated by me in my dispatches, it is averred by the Government that the existing prohibition in regard to beef and beef cattle, of which we complain, is in nowise attributable to an intention to retaliate or to an unfriendly disposition, but, on the other hand, is to be ascribed and is due to merely sanitary considerations, and that there is no connection between the complaint made by Germany in reference to the additional duty on sugar and the prohibition of which we complain. But without regard to, and speaking wholly apart from that matter, it is quite apparent, from the tone of the speeches above referred to and other equally significant indications, that there is ground for apprehension that unless the cause of complaint on the part of Germany be removed the strife to which I have alluded may, although not now contemplated and notwithstanding and in spite of friendly disposition on the part of the Government toward us, come about. I have deemed it my duty to say this as the result of my observations.
I may add that it is said that it is quite probable that no action will be taken at the present session of the Reichstag affecting the existing provisions for paying bounty to sugar growers.
I have, etc.,