Mr. MacVeagh to Mr. Fish.
Sir: The unsettled state of the public mind here to which I alluded in my dispatch of the 24th instant, has rather tended, I am sorry to say, to increase than to disappear during the past week. Indeed, current opinion at this capital has undergone several marked changes since the appearance of the Russian circular.
After the panic on the Bourse, which followed the first intelligence of the circular, there was little alarm manifested inconsequence of it. The legations were almost unanimous in expecting a peaceful solution of the difficulty, nor did the Porte appear to apprehend serious danger of war. Indeed, as I informed you at the time, it was gravely doubted here whether England would in any possible event defend the treaty by arms, and even if she decided to do so, whether Turkey would follow her guidance. The first doubt disappeared when Lord Granville’s answer to the circular was received; and the long and uniform foreign policy of the Grand Vizier, who remained in office, notwithstanding [Page 889] repeated rumors of his resignation, seemed to make clear the probable course of the government of the Sultan.
These considerations soon sufficed to produce great uneasiness and distrust, and for some days transactions in the public debt of the empire almost ceased. In a few days, however, the news of Count Bismarck’s proposal of a conference, and its probable acceptance, reached us; and it at once seemed to renew the general confidence in an amicable solution of the questions at issue, and to give it even more tone and vigor than it had originally displayed. For the East, peace was believed to be assured. The capitulation of Paris was expected to be close at hand, and with it the end of the terrible Franco-Prussian struggle. It was, therefore, very generally supposed that with the new year, or very soon thereafter, peace would be restored to Europe in the west as well as in the east, and that a large portion of the blessings of that result would fall to the share of the Ottoman empire in an increased sense of its stability, at home and abroad.
To such an extent, indeed, did I share this general conviction, that under its influence I wrote you for leave to return home; and though of course I was careful to assure you that I would not leave my post so long as there was any apprehension of war or other serious difficulty, I anticipated, with confidence, being able to start in the early spring, without detriment to the public service, so peaceful promised to be the aspect of affairs here by that time. As, however, considerable uneasiness and uncertainty are again discernible in the public mind here, and it may require longer time than I expected to be perfectly sure of peace, if the leave I requested has not been forwarded when this dispatch reaches you, please to withhold it until such time as I shall feel free to renew my application for it.
Various causes are assigned for the renewed anxiety to which I have alluded, and which is quite apparent at present. The recent action of Prince Charles of Roumania, the revolt in Asia, the suspected disloyalty of the Viceroy, and the bad condition of the finances, give rise in part to the fears of internal troubles, while the continuance of resistance by the French republic, Count Bismarck’s recent letter to the Prussian embassador at Florence, his renunciation of the treaty of Luxemburg, and the general willingness attributed to him to find or make cause of quarrel with some or all of the allies of the Sultan, give rise in fact to the fears of foreign troubles. These fears may be altogether groundless, and to a great extent they certainly appear to be so, but they serve to create a feverish and unsettled feeling, both here and in other parts of the empire, which in itself may become a source of danger. I hope to be able to send you a dispatch of some interest by the next mail on the subject of the Straits of the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus.
The rumor reaches us to-day that the approaching conference will consider the question of their use by foreign powers. Their importance is increasing day by day, and the time cannot be very far distant when an authoritative determination of their status will be required alike in the interest of commerce and of peace.
I have, &c.,