Mr. Bancroft to Mr. Fish
Sir: The expectation of immediate peace continues, though the moment of decision is awaited not without anxiety, and troops are still going forward that every contingency may be provided for. The progress of the negotiations will reach you by way of London sooner than I can report it, even by telegraph from Berlin. To understand the condition of France, it is only necessary to note the course of military events by which Gambetta hoped in the month of January to establish his dictatorship. General Roye with his army, supported by troops from Havre, was to drive the Germans from Rouen. General Faidherbe was to cut the connections of the Germans in the Northeast and East. Bourbaki and Garibaldi were, by menacing Belfort, to attract the forces under Prince Frederick Charles; and so the way was to be left open for General Chanzy from Mans to relieve Paris. But General Roye was beaten back with a loss of 12,000, taken prisoners; General Faidherbe, with a like loss of 11,000; Chanzy, 24,000; Bourbaki, 30,000, and more than 80,000 driven into Switzerland. In killed and wounded the loss of these armies, with those who fell in the sorties from Paris, amounted to 41,000; so that, apart from the losses of Garibaldi and the franc-tireurs, France suffered a loss of its active men in the field of about 200,000 outside of Paris, in the month of January alone. Add to this 150,000 troops that surrendered at the capitulation of Paris, without counting the national guard; and it appears that the effective force of France was in the month of January diminished by at least 350,000 men. The loss of the Germans to be set against this was about 10,000.
In this way the dictatorship of Gambetta came to an end, and France was driven to the necessity of making conditions of peace which almost seem like a capitulation. Your instructions to No. 293 (except 237) have been received.
I remain, &c.,