Mr. Jay to Mr. Davis
Sir: * * * * * * *
The policy of Prussia toward Rome had been changed, he said, within the last six weeks. The change was due to Prince Bismarck. It was now decided to resist strongly the Ultramontane party, and they had accordingly secured for Bavaria, in place of Count Bray, a minister who sided with Dr. Döllinger. Of what the future of the protesting movement might be, he had not been able to form an opinion. It required great faith and earnestness to secede from an established church and form a new sect, and he was inclined to doubt whether, of such faith, the supply in these times was over abundant. He intimated that the success of the Austrian policy of Count Hohenwart would be a misfortune, not alone in its influence on the Roman question, but in its bearings upon the Germans of Austria. On both of these questions Count Beust’s position was approved by the German government. I may here remark that the importance of the pending election seems to be acknowledged alike by the German centralists, who hold sacredly to the existing constitution as involving their supremacy, although in a minority, and by the disaffected nationalities whom President Hohenwart is endeavoring to unite, with the view of amending the constitution in a constitutional way; with the view of combining an extension of provincial legislative autonomy with an increased centralization of national power in a Reichsrath where all shall be equally represented.
Hitherto the immovable resolution of the Czechs and the disaffection of the Poles have defeated all efforts at success in this direction; but Count Hohenwart has had the assistance in this cabinet of Messrs. Jirecek and Habietinek, as representatives of Bohemia, and of Grocholski, on the part of Gallicia. Of seventeen provincial diets or landtags, eight have been dissolved by Count Hohenwart, the Emperor having the right [Page 30] to dissolve any diet at his pleasure, and after these new diets have been chosen, the entire number will elect deputies to the new Reichsrath.
Should any landtag refuse or omit to elect deputies, the Emperor can order a direct election by the original election. The seeming skill, caution, and confidence with which Count Hohenwart has quietly developed this policy, has aroused the fears and temper of his opponents; and the supposed effects of a two-third majority able to amend the constitution upon the German supremacy in Austria, may explain the anxiety exhibited by the Baron, when the subject was alluded to. It may also explain the desire of Count de Beust, as the foreign minister, to stand aloof from such a contest, and to aspire, as he said, to at least a temporary ignorance of the interior politics of the Austrian half of the empire.
The opposition to the Count of the Czechs and clericals, to which he alluded, may perhaps dispose him to regard without displeasure the strong desire on the part of Prussia that he should not be displaced from his post. * * * * * *
The general impression among the diplomats seems to be, that whatever may have been the propositions made to the Count de Beust, looking towards a closer alliance, the Prince Bismarck’s diplomacy in this direction has not as yet been a success, whatever may be accomplished at Salzburg; and the Baron’s remarks gave me the same impression, with an additional idea, that, while they had nothing to complain of as regards the Count’s friendliness and courtesies, they were still in doubt, perhaps not unreasonably, of his devotion to Prussia and of what might be his foreign policy.
The relations of Austria and Russia are, as every one feels, not cordial; but then, as Count Beust cheerfully remarked some two months ago, “they are no worse than usual;” and Austria is so accustomed to external complications and internal muddles, that even if they chanced to be rather worse than usual, it would not necessarily cause a sensation. There appears, however, to be at this moment a general feverishness, a want of confidence, and an indefinite expectation of another great war, without knowing when or whence it will come. A rumor, whether true or false, that the Prince Gortschakoff was to meet Thiers in Switzerland, and another, that the Italian minister had been invited to Salzburg, have tended to increase the excitement. A belief obtains that Prance is burning for revenge and will seek to elude the payment of the balance of the indemnity; that Russia is arming with the greatest rapidity and on an immense scale; and I am told that the Russian people are awakening to the fact that the policy of Prince Gortschakoff in standing guard for Prussia, while France was being crushed and dismembered, was at once a crime and a blunder; that she now finds she has assisted to destroy her natural ally, and to convert into a giant her natural foe; that what she has gained in the Black Sea was gained in a manner that has impaired the moral prestige of her diplomacy, while it affords no sort of compensation; and that, in fact, Russia stands to-day towards Prussia as France stood towards the same power, when she saw, as the result of her intrigues, the defeat of Sadowa. * * * * *
I have, &c.,