Mr. Dix to Mr. Seward
Sir: I have abstained from writing to you officially in regard to the war rumors with which the political atmosphere of Europe has been rife for the last sixty days, except by an allusion to the subject in my despatch No. 65. My chief reason was, that I entertained, against the general current of opinion, the confident hope that peace would be preserved. I have not relinquished this hope now. At the same time, it is right to state that some of the most distinguished and experienced members of the diplomatic corps, whom I met yesterday at the department of foreign affairs, entertain the greatest apprehensions of war at an early day.
The exciting cause at this moment is the Luxembourg question, which is now under consideration by the great powers. A few days ago the chances were that it would be settled by the evacuation of the fortress by Prussia, on the express condition that it should not be ceded to France. As the States journal of Holland (les Pays Bas) disclaims it, this arrangement would virtually secure the self government of the Grand Duchy, or, as the diplomacy of Europe rather pedantically says, its autonomy. Another proposition is, that it shall be annexed to Belgium, which has already a part of the former Grand Duchy. There was a hope that the matter would be settled this week, in anticipation of the meeting of the Prussian Parliament on Monday next, the 29th; but a telegraphic despatch this morning announces that Bismarck will not act without consulting the Chambers. As the susceptibilities of the Germans are greatly excited, it is feared that the question will be made more difficult of solution by a legislative discussion.
Mr. Jules Favre moved yesterday in the Corps Legislatif a call on the government for information on the subject; and the feeling in France is quite as much excited as in Prussia.
I have, notwithstanding the bad aspect of things, not relinquished the hope already expressed that the general peace will be maintained. But the ocean telegraph renders speculation on questions which, from their nature, must ripen into an early maturity, nearly useless; and before this despatch reaches you, the prevailing doubt will, in all probabili y, be put at rest.
I have the honor to be, very respectfully, your obedient servant,
Hon. William H. Seward, Secretary of State, Washington, D. C.