Mr. Adams to Mr. Seward.
Sir: The commercial panic precipitated by the threatening aspect of things on the continent has subsided but slowly. Relief has been obtained on the one de by the receipt of unexpectedly large gold remittances from the United States; and on the other by the consent of the great powers to assemble their delegates in conference at Paris, with the hope of arriving at a peaceful settlement of all difficulties.
Presuming that you receive from the proper quarters on the continent full ports of the state of things prevailing in the different courts, I do not venture moon any predictions as to the course which events will ultimately take. It will be sufficient for my purpose to explain, so far as I can, the effect upon them the policy adopted here. The issue of the struggle in parliament on the spanish question two years ago, the immediate forerunner of the present complication, was to establish for this country a new rule of neutrality and isolation wards all the continental nations. To that rule it is the present intention of is government to adhere, whatever may happen. Conscious of this advantage, be Emperor of France appears to be more and more shaping his course towards establishing himself as the arbiter of all the interests of continental Europe, is aim, so far as it may be gathered from his language, is to unsettle in all its parts the arrangement adverse to France which followed the downfall of the first Napoleon in 1815. This has already been in a measure accomplished; [Page 126] but much yet remains, and that the most deeply connected with the interests of France. The provisions of the treaties of 1815 have ceased to be effective in the greater part of Italy, in the low countries, in Savoy, and in the Elbe Duchies. They still continue in force on that part of the boundaries of France in which it is most assailable from without. It is, therefore, not unreasonable to, impute to its sovereign a desire ultimately so to extend its lines in that quarter as to restore the boundary established in the day of his uncle, but wiped out by the triumph of his enemies. The motives of this course may not be purely patriotic ones. Considering the growing restlessness of the people under his sway, they may not unfairly be considered to embrace the object of diverting their attention from purely domestic concerns to a result always cherished, the attainment of which might help to restore his popularity and confirm his dynasty.
I have remarked that the present attitude of Great Britain furnishes facilities for the prosecution of such a policy as is here indicated, which may tempt the Emperor to seize the present opportunity to use them. On the other hand, he must possess stronger nerves than he has credit for to contemplate with calmness the consequences that may ensue from lighting what may prove to be a general conflagration. As yet there is reason to suspect that he has not braced himself up to that exact point. The evidence of this is the assembly of the conference under the pressure put upon him by England and Russia. A few days only can intervene before he must show his hand more clearly than he has yet done. When he does, and not till then, shall we be in a position to judge of the probabilities of preserving the peace, not less of Great Britain than that of the rest of Europe.
I have the honor to be, sir, your obedient servant,
Hon. William H. Seward, Secretary of State, Washington, D. C.