74. Draft Memorandum From the Office of National Estimates, Central Intelligence Agency, to Director of Central Intelligence McCone0
SUBJECT
- The Situation in Yemen
SUMMARY
Yemen faces the prospect of a prolonged and bloody civil war between the republican forces supported by the UAR and the royalist forces supported by Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The outcome of the struggle is not yet clear but in general we believe that in time the advantages will lie with Nasser and the republicans. The establishment of a republican, pro-Nasser regime in Yemen would significantly increase the pressures against the conservative regimes in Saudi Arabia and Jordan and against the British position in Aden. We do not believe, however, that it would be particularly conducive to the spread of Communist influence in the area nor necessarily detrimental to US interests.
[Here follows the body of the memorandum.]
- Source: Kennedy Library, National Security Files, Countries Series, Yemen, 10/1/62–10/8/62. Secret. Komer transmitted this memorandum to Bundy under cover of a note that reads: “An interesting piece, perhaps largely because it comes out about where I do myself. We’re going to be under more and more pressure to recognize new Yemeni regime. But I hope we’ll keep cool a bit longer. Let’s wait till it becomes clear to Saud and Hussein that they’re losing, so they won’t blame it on US recognition.”↩