216. Telegram From the Embassy in the Philippines to the Department of State1
46. Eyes only Rusk, Ball, Bundy, Hilsman from Bowles.2 Two days in South Vietnam, during which I talked at length with Diem, his top colleagues, US Embassy and military officials, press representatives, Indian head of ICC and other informed individuals, left me with profound feeling of concern.
Situation appears paradoxical in that military measures against Viet Cong are making substantial progress while political outlook sharply deteriorates.
Many qualified observers, in and out of government, privately assert that Diem regime is probably doomed and that while political and military risks involved in a switchover are substantial they may now be less dangerous than continuation of Ngo family in present role.
[Page 483]My personal views are necessarily tentative due to shortness of stay and difficulty of forming objective judgments because of deep commitment of almost all American observers to positions which they have held over a period of time and bitter impasse between US officialdom and US press.
However, I left Saigon with feeling that a political explosion is likely in foreseeable future and that a fresh US government evaluation of political situation is urgently needed by someone who is not emotionally involved.
Embassy instructions for various overturn contingencies also needed.
Do not believe that re-evaluation should wait until new Ambassador arrives in September nor, with due respect to present incumbent, can we expect a fully balanced evaluation from those who have been directly concerned.
Therefore strongly suggest some informed US official who has full confidence of President and Secretary visit Saigon on a most urgent basis. Roger Hilsman would seem to be obvious choice. However Tom Hughes or Mike Forrestal would be less conspicuous.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 27 S VIET. Top Secret; Eyes Only; Priority; Limited Distribution. A note on the source text indicates that a copy of this telegram was passed to the White House on July 10.↩
- Regarding Bowles’ visit to Vietnam, July 7 and 8, see footnote 6, Document 214.↩