35. Memorandum From Secretary of State Vance to President Carter1
[Omitted here are items unrelated to the Horn of Africa.]
3. Ethiopia: Soviet Airlift and the Military Situation—The Soviets began an airlift of foodstuffs and military-related technical items to Ethiopia on November 28. The airlift is scheduled to continue through December 3. [1½ lines not declassified] 12 cargo aircraft will be involved. In addition, aircraft, tanks, and other military supplies have been arriving in Ethiopia at a rate faster than the Ethiopians can assimilate them. The airlift is evidence of the depth of Soviet support for the Mengistu regime.2
Ethiopia’s overall military situation has deteriorated. In Eritrea, we have clandestine reports that the Ethiopian government’s position has worsened, and that Asmara is wracked by severe supply problems that gravely affect the daily life of the civilian population. We also have reports of indiscipline in the Ethiopian military forces there. In the Ogaden, we cannot confirm Somali claims that Harar has fallen, but it appears that the city is besieged on three sides by mixed Somali [Page 80] insurgent and regular forces. We think the Somalis have an even chance of taking the town. If they do, the nearby town of Diredawa will probably fall to the Somalis and its fall would delay Ethiopian plans for an early December counterattack against Somali forces in the eastern Ogaden and northern Somalia.
[Omitted here are items unrelated to the Horn of Africa.]
- Source: Carter Library, Plains File, Subject File, Box 13, State Department Evening Reports, 11/77. Secret. Carter initialed in the upper right corner and wrote, “Cy.”↩
- For the CIA’s report on the Soviet airlift, see Foreign Relations, 1977–1980, vol. VI, Soviet Union, Document 66.↩