Office of the Historian

43. Contingency Study Prepared by the National Security Council Interdepartmental Working Group/Europe, Washington, undated.1 2

Washington, undated.

CONTINGENCY STUDY FOR ROMANIA

Summary

There are broadly speaking two sets of contingencies which can arise with respect to Romania. Typically they will be interrelated. Both would result from the state of Romanian-Soviet relations. One is military, ranging from threats of military action to outright invasion. The other is political, where tensions in the Warsaw Pact and a change - possibly violent - of the Romanian leadership would result in enhanced Soviet influence in Romania.

None of these contingencies is likely to affect U.S. and NATO security interests directly. They would, however, importantly affect U.S. and NATO political interests, since they would point - and in some cases amount - to a resurgence of the Brezhnev Doctrine. Increased Soviet dominance in Romania would also tend to affect Yugoslavia adversely. Any invasion of Romania by the Soviet Union would upset current efforts to improve East-West relations, foreclose increased bilateral relations and pose the problem of protecting U.S. interests in Romania.

The objective of all action options during phases of strong Soviet/Warsaw Pact pressures or threatened invasion would be to bring home to the Soviets, through preventive diplomacy, the risks of such policies. At the same time any contingency limited to Romania is not likely to lead to a Western decision to intervene militarily.

The range of likely options extends from diplomatic warnings to the interruption of on-going efforts to improve the East-West climate, as well as possible economic measures. It would be important to coordinate these steps in NATO and take any action only in a NATO context.

CONTINGENCY STUDY FOR ROMANIA

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Table of Contents

Summary Page

Basic Plan

A. Contingencies 1
B. U.S. Interests 6
C. Assumptions 9
D. Key Issues 13
E. Basic Optional Courses of Action Available to US 17
F. Recommended Courses of Action 26
G. Further Planning Required 29

Annexes

A.
Detailed Maps
B.
Text of Pertinent Treaties and Agreements
C.
List of Significant Personalities
D.
Local or Regional Military Forces
E.
Summary of U.S. PLANS and Forces
F.
Other U.S. Assets, Including Economic
G.
Problems Related to Nuclear Weapons
H.
Evacuation Plan
I.
Arrangements for Activating the Crisis Task Force
J.
Composition of Study Group
K.
Roster of Personnel Knowledgeable or Expert
L.
Catalogue of Communication Facilities
M.
Guide to Supporting Materials
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[Omitted here is the study and all annexes.]

  1. Source: National Security Council, Ford Subject Files, Romania. No classification marking. Attached but not published is the study with all annexes.↩
  2. The National Security Council prepared a study of the potential impact of Soviet military action against Romania or internal Romanian political instability on the U.S. and the NATO alliance.↩