50. Airgram From the Embassy in Iran to the Department of State1
SUBJECT
- Semi-Annual Assessment of the Political Situation in Iran
REF
- Embassy A–361 of December 31, 19632
Note: In order that reports of this series may be considered also in connection with the Department’s review of our forthcoming Progress Report on the Internal Defense Plan, we have used August 1 as the vantage point from which to survey the political situation in Iran. Therefore, [Page 101] insofar as the present report also contains a semi-annual review of events, it covers the seven-month period from January 1 to August 1. Unless a faster pace of events makes another cut-off date appear more useful for such an assessment, we hope to furnish the next report in this series six months from now, on February 1, 1965.
1. Summary. The only important trend that emerges from our assessment is the gradual deterioration of Iran-Arab relations, and especially of relations with Iraq, since the time of our last report in this series. This is now clearly the problem of principal concern to the Shah. Relations with the U.S. are excellent, probably in good part due to our forthcoming attitude toward the Shah’s military concerns, which are now primarily related to the Arab claims to Khuzistan. The internal security situation is good, and the regime’s control as tight as ever. The economic situation is on balance slightly worse because of the poor crop situation, although business activity is up; but private investment has not revived and real wages for urban workers are probably down.
The Mansur Government appears to be a definite improvement over its predecessor, both in respect to the leadership provided by the Prime Minister and in respect to substantive administrative improvements. The Parliament has not increased in political importance. The reform program has made no particular progress. The New Iran Party is displaying some forward movement and seems to become an asset to the regime. The opposition’s capacity for making trouble has probably further declined, and this is also true of the mullahs. Some minor changes have occurred in the “pecking order“, but the Shah of course still determines everyone’s status. The tribal situation is definitely better in the south, and under control in the west. The slow trend “normalization” of relations with the USSR continues. [1–1/2 lines of source text not declassified]
[Here follows the body of the paper.]
Martin F. Herz
Counselor of Embassy
for Political Affairs
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, POL 7 IRAN. Confidential. Drafted by Eliot; coordinated with [text not declassified], First Secretary John A. Armitage; and approved by Rockwell. Repeated to Ankara, Baghdad, Cairo, Dhahran, Jidda, Kabul, Karachi, Kuwait, London, Moscow, Paris, and CINCMEAFSA for POLAD.↩
- Not printed. (Ibid., POL 2 IRAN)↩