No. 257.
Mr. White
to Mr. Evarts.
Berlin, November 18, 1879. (Received December 10.)
Sir: You have doubtless been cognizant of the many reports which have found their way into the public prints regarding a recent remarkable change in European international relations; a change by which alliances, binding together two of the great European powers for more than sixty years, have apparently been suddenly shattered, and intimate relations established between powers which, during one hundred and forty years, have regarded each other always with distrust and sometimes with hatred. The reports of this change have not only awakened deep and general interest in this capital, but in all countries in any way related to Europe.
Now, that the lapse of time has in some measure cleared the air of mere rumor, I send you the following account of the events in which these reports originated, with such conclusions as, from my intercourse with official and diplomatic persons, I judge to be warrantable.
Close as may have been the understanding between the Prussian and Russian Governments since 1812, a feeling of distrust has long been growing between the two peoples. I became aware of this as long ago as 1855–’56, when I was attached to the United States legation at St. Petersburg; for although at that time the friendship between the two governments was so close that abuse was lavished upon the Prussian sovereign by the English and French press, and although the Emperor Alexander, in his first reception of the diplomatic body, took especial pains to dwell upon the warmness of the friendship between himself and the Prussian King, it was not less evident that the thorough Russians greatly disliked Germany and the German element in their government, which, by its thrift and vigor, had taken such a great share of Russian positions of profit and honor. On the other hand, the thorough German, while he had no such personal dislike to Russia, naturally distrusted that Russian influence which, from the days of the Holy Alliance, had opposed the entire forward movement in his own country.
The Berlin treaty of 1878 rendered this chronic trouble acute. The organs of Russian panslavism, in discussing that treaty, declared that it utterly failed to recognize the Russian friendliness toward Prussia in the wars of 1866 and 1870 and the Russian victories over the Turks in 1877. Prince Bismarck, it was said, was to blame for this—he, it was alleged, having at the conference given the support of Germany to Austria and England rather than to Russia. Thus began a series of journalistic attacks upon Germany more vigorous than any hitherto known. As the provisions of the treaty were carried into effect, and Austria, which had remained peaceful, was seen to be receiving fruits of victories which had cost Russia so dear, these utterances became more and more bitter. That they were subdued at intervals, was probably due to the protests of the German Government.
That the old kindly feeling between the heads of the two empires still continued, was evident at the interview between the Emperors at Alexandrowno in the beginning of September; but it is now seen that personal considerations were not to determine the course of events. Last summer, when it was announced that the German chancellor was about to visit Vienna, the panslavistic press was aroused to new activity.
[Page 392]Immediately before the visit was actually paid, political Europe was startled by the report of a conversation between the Russian chancellor, Prince Gortschakoff, then at Baden-Baden, and a correspondent of a French newspaper. In this report, the truth of which has never been really denied, the Russian chancellor is represented as paying compliments to France, as urging her to be strong, as insisting upon the necessity of her maintaining her position in Europe, and as assuring her of the friendship of Russia.
Although the growing ill-feeling of the Russian people, if the tone of their journals maybe taken as a criterion, might have prepared the public mind for some such expressions, these utterances, of the Russian chancellor created great astonisment. People generally began to see in this conversation confirmation of an idea which has for a long time been prevalent, viz, that the German chancellor had been thwarted in his plans for a second war against France in 1875 by the resistance of the Russian chancellor, and that personal ill-will had, in consequence, grown up between these two statesmen.
A fortnight afterward, that is, toward the close of September last. Prince Bismarck went to Vienna. The cordiality with which he was received by the Emperor and Count Andrassy, who was just at that time about to hand over his authority as premier to Baron Haymerle, and the enthusiasm with which the populace greeted him, were eagerly commented upon in every political circle. It soon became understood that an alliance between Germany and Austria-Hungary had been completed. As regards internal affairs, it was hailed with joy by liberals of every shade in Germany as putting an end to that Russian influence which, in their opinion, had been so injurious for many generations. As regards external affairs, it was received by all parties as another great step toward the consolidation of German-speaking peoples against Panslavism, and, therefore, as giving strength to German ideas and a more peaceable development to German civilization. That such an alliance had been concluded, seems to me beyond doubt; and, from very high sources in this capital, I have obtained the following information regarding its general character. The document signed by the German chancellor and the Austro-Hungarian minister insures—first, a union for the execution of the Berlin treaty; secondly, a mutual defensive alliance against attacks from any side; thirdly, the conclusions of a new commercial treaty. It is also understood that a stipulation was agreed to at Vienna that a notification of this alliance should be immediately sent to the Russian Government. To the policy involved in this, however, the German Emperor had very strong objections; and it was not until the German chancellor and his ministers had, with the greatest efforts, satisfied the Emperor of the necessity of the alliance, that his majesty gave his consent. In response, the Russian Government declare, in general terms, that, so far as they are concerned, the alliance is purposeless, since Russia is, and has steadily been, determined to carry the Berlin treaty into execution.
The first result was a cloud of rumors of war. An acknowledged authority assured me at that time that, in his belief, a general European war would begin early next spring. The argument was, war must come sooner or later, and every one feels that, relatively, Germany is stronger now than she may be a few years hence. But opinion rapidly changed, and there now seems a general impression that the new alliance has done much to strengthen the prospects of a continuance of peace. Russia, it is believed, will never attack Germany and Austria, with whom England would then be leagued, without powerful alliances; and to secure these [Page 393] further diplomatic action and the lapse of considerable time are indispensable.
During the past week, however, events have occurred which throw, temporarily at least, some cloud over this opinion. Evidences are not wanting of a lamentable lack of good feeling between the Russian and German frontier authorities. The Russian officials at Kowno have, it appears, for several years past, refused to allow German steamers to ply on that part of the river Memen which flows through Russia, although the German authorities have permitted Russian steamers to ply on the Memen in Germany. The Russian Government has declared that the authorities at Kowno have ignored its instructions; but as the prohibition has continued, the German minister of commerce and industry has, with the sanction of the German Imperial foreign office, given orders that, from the 11th instant, the permission hitherto accorded the Russian steamers to ply on the German Memen should be withdrawn. This action of the frontier officials may be merely the result of local and personal prejudice; but it is none the less significant, and affords by no means the only proof that these events have aroused among some persons, high in authority in this empire, a very deep sense of what is due to the honor of the German nation.
Any one conversant with the history of the relations between Russia and Prussia is well aware that, in days gone by, such treatment of Prussian commerce would not have elicited any such energetic reprisals. Stress also is laid by many upon certain facts regarding the recent visit of the heir apparent to the Russian throne. He arrived in this city on Sunday morning last on his way to St. Petersburg; his approach was well known, and public prints of all shades, almost without exception, contained articles of a friendly character. But there was one marked exception. The “Norddeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung,” generally known as the organ of the chancellor, not only contained not a word of welcome, but had a selected leading article, pointing out the good which would result from the Austro-German alliance against panslavism. In a country where matters of official etiquette and courtesy are so carefully weighed this naturally produces a strong impression.
While no one can doubt that the logical result of this German-Austrian alliance is a league which shall embrace England, the best opinion here just now seems to be that great care is taken by the German Government to avoid any appearances of any such league at present. It is believed here by persons who seemed to me well worthy of confidence that the present English Government has already, in its Turkish policy, presumed too much on an immediate prospect of such an alliance. There seems to be a strong desire on the part of those in power here to have it understood that the alliance made at Vienna is strictly what it claims to be, that is, one between the two German speaking nations with reference to dangers which may beset them, and that it shall not be developed into anything more offensive to Russia than it now is. It is felt that the Emperor of Germany, in view of his close personal connection with the Russian Imperial family, has gone quite as far as he can be expected to go; that his sacrifice of personal feeling is very great, and that he would oppose the idea of pressing this policy any further than is absolutely necessary, or making this change in the time-honored political alliance of Prussia and Russia anymore unpleasant to Russia than it is at present.
It was doubtless this feeling that made the recent reception by him of the heir to the Russian crown especially hearty. The chancellor remained at Varzin, and did not visit Berlin at all; the German Crown [Page 394] Prince remained in Italy; but the Emperor himself, and all immediately about him, took evident pains to remove any impression that anything like coolness had grown up between the chiefs of these two great nations.
These feelings of the honored head of this empire of course do not change the essential nature of the new alliance; at most they can only defer for a time its logical consequences. If persisted in, it cannot fail to draw England eventually within its scope.
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I have, &c.,