123. Memorandum from Brubeck to McGeorge Bundy, July 221

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SUBJECT

  • El Salvador—Short-Term Prospects for Political Stability Good—Long-Term Prospects Less So

Despite El Salvador’s Alliance for Progress accomplishments, there continues to be fairly serious underlying political weakness. Several recent developments underline the fact that the honeymoon is over for the year-old administration of Lt. Col. Julio Rivera. In this context Ambassador Williams has submitted the enclosed new assessment of “Political Realities in El Salvador”, focusing more sharply on the lack of organized support for the Government of El Salvador and the Alianza among many civilians.

Recent unfavorable developments in El Salvador include the following:

1. The weakening of the ORIT-supported labor confederation—the Government’s major ally in the elections of Rivera and his one-party Legislative Assembly—which became apparent in its poor showing in this year’s May Day parades. This recurring problem stems from the fact that the infant non-Communist labor movement continues to be basically dependent on GOES support and subject to its restraint, with the result that the individual union member has difficulty seeing how union membership is benefitting him.

2. The recent success of opposition political figures in spreading rumors of coup attempts and/or GOES financial difficulties, thereby creating an atmosphere of uneasiness.

3. The apparent inability of the GOES to get the story of their “program” to the people as a means of evoking public support.

4. A recent report by the Vice President that the “young” military officers in particular are becoming more insistent concerning the need for social and economic progress, and harder to satisfy on this point because of the influence of the anti-Government press.

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5. An indication that President Rivera may be becoming careless about the delicate problem of maintaining close personal contact with his military peers. (His Minister of Defense and Chief of Staff are concerned because he failed to consult them before appointing a key military “Out” to a political position.)

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In his assessment, Ambassador Williams outlines in a general way what can be done and is being done to attack the underlying problem. His thinking is in the line with current policy directives, including the plan of action approved for El Salvador by the Latin American Policy Committee. Continued attention will be given to this problem and possible means of attacking it in the next plan of action submitted for the consideration of the Latin American Policy Committee.

Grant G. Hilliker
for
William H. Brubeck
Executive Secretary

Enclosure:

San Salvador’s A–706.

  1. El Salvador—long- and short-term prospects for political stability. Confidential. 2 pp. Kennedy Library, National Security Files, Brubeck Series, Salvador, 1961–64.