893.00/4–1348: Telegram
The Consul General at Mukden (Ward) to the Secretary of State
[Received April 15—5:34 a. m.]
159. Mil. situation northeast remains static. Communists immobilized by spring thaw, utilizing time to regroup, resupply and reinforce units. Military Headquarters here believes this operation will not be completed until fortnight or month hence and military lull will continue during such period. Communists show little desire present time push Chch (Changchun) offensive. Sporadic artillery fire replaced [placed] on principal airport there has made airlift supply undependable. Second rate Communist troops surrounding city. Present indications are Communists will attempt starve city into submission by tight blockade. Refugees who entered Chch (Changchun) from Kirin when Kirin evacuated and who now desire return Kirin not being allowed leave Changchun. When refu-gees approach Communist outposts and advise Communists they wish to support Communists they are informed can best serve Communist cause by returning Changchun and consuming food.
Govt continues tight perimeter defense of Mukden showing no indications starting counteroffensive notwithstanding Mukden headquarters alleges Govt troops may institute counteroffensive within 2 to 4 weeks. Main Govt force north Mukden deployed along south bank Liao River. Only small patrols venture across river. Slightly more Govt movements south Mukden where Communists forces weaker and deployed over larger area. Govt showing no indications attempt retake either Liaoyang, Anshan or Yingkow, all of which am weakly defended by Communists.
Wei continues prove his primary worry involves supply. Now believed prior shortage ammunition for American equipment being overcome by airlifts Chinchow-Mukden. Field units which are primarily equipped with non-American arms having their ammunition [Page 191] supply brought up to desired amounts. This ammunition being made at Mukden arsenal which has had chance build up considerable surplus during recent military lull. Wei now seeking method securing arms for new recruits and replacement worn out weapons now in hands of troops. Wei who has great respect fire power provided by American M–l rifle, machine guns and 60 MM mortar, anxious equip all troops possible these American arms. Believed that his second priority airlift will be equipment this type. Believed airlifting foodstuffs receiving third priority.
Government reports reinforcements for northeast, while probably exaggerated, appear substantially true. Reports believed accurate received [that] Government Eight Army (called Eight Division) from Shantung now being moved Chinchow. One division reported already afloat. Future use these troops plus [these] recruits now undergoing training in Chinchow area being held as close military secret by Govt. Majority observers, however, believe Communists tactics in expected spring offensive will determine. If Communists push offensive against Mukden, these troops probably will be used to relieve. If Communists merely encircle Mukden, these troops probably will be held in Chinchow area attempt toward any Communist drive southwards along Mukden–Peiping rail line to Peiping-Tientsin area. At best main hope Mukden residents is that troops will be used open corridor Mukden–Chinchow to permit truck traffic between two cities. Hopes and expectations resumption rail traffic Mukden–Chinchow constantly fading. Present time is ideal for Govt make move reopen corridor since bulk Communist troops now north Liao River. A sudden drive by Govt would permit them take and secure corridor before Communists could move forces to thwart move. If Government awaits Communist attack will face 350 to 400,000 combatant troops with only 200,000 well equipped and trained Govt troops.
Communist apparently realizing weaknesses of supply system repairing railroads in their rear areas. ESD92 sources state Lin Piao, Communist leader in northeast, has ordered all rail bridges and culverts in Communist-held territory south Sungari River be repaired by April 15.
Opinions many military observers [that] major efforts extensive Communist offensive will be directed southwards towards North China areas given credence by fact Communists feverishly repairing rail lines west and southwards from Changwu, Goyihsien thru Hsinlitun and Fuhsin (mytel 174 [to] Embassy March 1193).
Sent Embassy 219, repeated Department 159.