299. Memorandum From Secretary of State Rogers to President Nixon 1
SUBJECT
- Chinese Representation at the 25th General Assembly
The vote on the Albanian Resolution, which seeks to seat Peking in the United Nations and to expel the Republic of China, was defeated last year 48–56–21. The vote this year seems likely to be closer, and a plurality in its favor seems possible. Our estimates, based on the available but incomplete indications of changed position, are roughly as follows: If all the shifts now considered “likely” occur, the resolution would fail 50–52–23. Should roughly half of the now discernible “possible” shifts also take place, the vote would be 51/52–49–24/25 in favor of the Albanian Resolution.
However, the Important Question Resolution (providing that a ⅔ majority of those voting is required to change China’s representation in the UN) should pass easily, though the margin may be reduced somewhat from last year’s 71–48–4. Thus a plurality in favor of the Albanian Resolution would not lead to its adoption. Nevertheless, such a plurality would be a psychological blow to our position and could lead to a marked deterioration in the vote next year. It also could conceivably open up the possibility of new motions unfavorable to our position at the present Assembly.
These estimates are, of course, distinctly subject to change in the period preceding the vote, now expected in mid-November. During that time, we will be consulting closely with the Government of the Republic of China and other governments which share our concern, coordinating tactics in an effort to forestall a plurality for the Albanian Resolution. It will be touch-and-go but I believe we have a reasonable chance of success.
- Source: National Archives, RG 59, Central Files 1970–73, UN 6 CHICOM. Confidential. Drafted by Feldman and Armitage and cleared by Marshall Green and Martin F. Herz. A covering memorandum from Green to Rogers is dated October 12. An enclosure entitled “Chirep Shifts, Likely or Possible” is attached but not printed.↩