Foreign Relations of the United States, 1964–1968, Volume XXXII, Dominican Republic; Cuba; Haiti; Guyana

363. Intelligence Information Cable¹

TDCS-314/09395–67

Washington, June 28, 1967.

COUNTRY

Haiti

DOI

26 June 1967

SUBJECT

• Situation Appraisal—President Duvalierʼs Present Strength and Capabilities

ACQ

[less than 1 line of source text not declassified]

SOURCE

Staff officer of this organization. This is a field appraisal of the current situation. It is not an official judgment by this agency or any component. It represents the observations and interpretations of a staff officer based on information available to him at the time of its preparation.

1. Although it is true, as it has been for some years, that Duvalier could be overthrown at any moment, the political situation has not become more tense nor has it further deteriorated. There is little evidence that there has been any active plotting or that any group could form to carry off a coup without detection and ruthless annihilation. If anything, Duvalier has strengthened his position by his recent display of life-and-death control over each and every Haitian, innocent or guilty. His closest associates have remained loyal and have carried out his orders blindly, even though they must know their lives are in jeopardy. Intelligent Haitian observers say that this incredible subservience and shortsightedness is to be expected from the men close to Duvalier. He has so thoroughly involved them in his own crimes and, at the same time, so enriched them that they will cling to their prerogatives. They are unwilling to take any preventive action whereby they might lose everything, and hope to be able to save their own lives by seeking asylum at the last fatal minute. They feel they have more to fear from a future unknown regime.

2. If a real coup attempt is made and fails, Haiti may see a terrible bloodbath, but any other event probably will pass by with little loss of life. There has been no doubt for some years that Duvalier is not normal. His speech on 22 June 1967 showed definite signs of paranoia. In his fear of his enemies, imagined or real, he believes any denunciation and would take wide-range repressive action if any unsuccessful attempt were made against his life. Despite his fears, he remains in full control of his faculties and the instrument of government. Lacking real targets, he simply has removed all threats to his power: his son-in-law, his close past associates, his bodyguards, and most recently, members of his own cabinet.

3. The economic situation continues to worsen. Drought conditions in the cul-de-sac may lessen the sugar crop. The coffee and sisal markets offer little hope for the Haitian economy. Duvalierʼs monetary situation is shaky as revenues continue to decline. In the face of these seemingly insurmountable obstacles, it appears that Duvalierʼs family has urged him to abdicate. However, there is little chance that he will, and he is likely to retain his political power while further injuring the national economy through foolish acts. Most recently, he has threatened the continued existence of the Commercial Bank by depriving its president, Clemard Joseph Charles, of much of his empire. This will be a serious blow to free enterprise and continued business operations, let alone development.

4. Duvalierʼs control is total. There is no “power balance” in the palace. Duvalier plays off his militia against the army and vice versa, and he has never permitted anyone to become a threat to his own power. All opposition, or imagined opposition, is ruthlessly and bloodily crushed. Least likely to succeed in the near future are the Communists who are too small in numbers to carry through any move. Someday someone may muster up enough courage to kill Duvalier. It would not be difficult; however, then the first scramble for power would come among the top Duvalierist hierarchy which would still hold the symbols and some of the seats of power, as well as the only weapons. The army is the most likely force to seize control if Duvalier should go. A military regime would not last long and successor governments would, without outside help, continue to deteriorate and lose more and more control. In this atmosphere, the Communists will have an opportunity for insurgency; the danger, however, is not immediate.

[1 paragraph (1 line of source text) not declassified]

1. Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Haiti, Vol. V. Secret; No Foreign Dissem. Bowdler forwarded this cable to Rostow under a June 29 note, stating that this “is the latest appraisal on Haiti from a CIA staff officer [less than 1 line of source text not declassified].”