124. Intelligence Memorandum1
THE OUTLOOK FOR INSURGENCY IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Summary
The pro-Chinese Communist Dominican Popular Movement (MPD) will probably initiate a program of terrorist activity in the Santo Domingo area and an elementary form of guerrilla warfare at one or more points in the interior. The pro-Castro 14th of June Political Group (APCJ) is divided on whether or not to launch a major guerrilla effort in the interior, but it is better prepared and enjoys greater capabilities than the MPD for this type of insurgency. Because Communist-affiliated groups lack popular support in the Dominican Republic, the Dominican military and police could probably severely limit such insurgent activity to a degree where it would not pose a serious threat. If however, harsh repressive measures are carried out indiscriminately and the economic situation does not improve, the leftist extremists might then gain enough support from non-Communist groups to threaten the provisional government.
[Omitted here is the body of the memorandum.]
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Dominican Republic, Vol. X, 8/65–9/65. Secret. Prepared in the Office of Current Intelligence, Directorate of Intelligence, CIA.↩