92. Research Memorandum From the Director of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (Hughes) to the Secretary of State 1
SUBJECT
- Hanoi, Paris, Saigon, and South Vietnam’s Future
Proliferating reports of varying credibility allege activity on the part of Ngo Dinh Nhu to negotiate with Hanoi on South Vietnam’s future, with or without French connivance. At this stage it is impossible to ascertain fully the validity of such reports but their plausibility and implication are assessed below for contingency planning purposes.
Abstract
President De Gaulle’s statement of August 292 reflects his long-standing belief that neutralization of Southeast Asia is inevitable and desirable. However, neither his words nor reports of French diplomatic activity in Saigon indicate any clear and imminent intention of moving to bring this about in South Vietnam. Nonetheless, his statement and these reports provide a basis for Ngo Dinh Nhu to threaten, directly or indirectly, that clandestine contacts between Saigon and Hanoi might arrange a settlement contrary to United States interests. This threat may be merely a bluff to reduce United States pressures upon Nhu; should it go further Diem would probably stop such activity well short of any deal with Ho Chi Minh. Hanoi, however, would attempt to encourage such contacts if only to exploit contradictions within the non-Communist camp. Conceivably the mixture of truth and rumor, contrived and accidental, could bring about diplomatic pressures for an international conference on Vietnam. Soviet Russia might back such a move; Communist China would reluctantly go along if it thought this could force a withdrawal of the United States from South Vietnam.
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- Source: Department of State, Vietnam Working Group Files: Lot 67 D 54, Pol 15 Gov’t. Secret; No Foreign Dissem; Limit Distribution.↩
- See footnote 7, Document 26.↩